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Specter easily tops Toomey in new poll; matchup with Ridge much closer

Newly Democratic Senator Arlen Specter was dreading his GOP contest against Pat Toomey, so much so that the longtime incumbent switched parties last week. But if new polling is any indication, Specter should be hoping he meets Toomey in a general election next year.

In the first poll since Specter said he would become a Democrat, the incumbent led Toomey, the conservative former Congressman, by 20 points. A general election held today, according to the Quinnipiac University poll released this morning, would see Specter defeat Toomey 53 percent to 33 percent.

But if former Gov. Tom Ridge were to be his general election opponent, as some moderate Republicans are hoping, Specter’s reelection bid could be much more difficult. The survey found Specter leading Ridge by only three points, 46 percent to 43 percent. Recent reports have indicated that Ridge, who resigned as Governor in 2001 to head up the new Department of Homeland Security, is considering a run.

“A former Republican Senator running as a Democrat against a popular former Republican governor seeking to make a political comeback would be a battle royal in Pennsylvania,” Clay Richards, assistant director of Quinnipiac’s Polling Institute, said in a statement.

“Gov. Tom Ridge is probably the only political figure in Pennsylvania who could give Sen. Arlen Specter a run for his money,” Richards added.

The survey of 1,120 Pennsylvania voters was conducted after Specter switched parties and has a margin of error of 2.9 percent. It assumes he will win the Democratic primary, an assumption some see as premature. Democrats Bill Kortz and Joe Torsella are still in the race, while Congressman Joe Sestak (D-7) and Pittsburgh City Controller Michael Lamb considering runs of their own.

Most encouraging for Specter’s primary hopes may be the finding that only 23 percent of voters are less likely to support Specter because of his opposition to the Employee Free Choice Act, known widely as “card check.” Specter has said he won’t change his recent opposition to the bill. Fourteen percent of voters say his stance makes them more likely to back Specter, and 60 percent say it won’t affect their vote. The poll did not include Congressman Jim Gerlach (R-6), who is also mulling a run.

See the full poll here.

May 4, 2009 at 9:03 am

--Dan Hirschhorn

Tags: Arlen Specter, Bill Kortz, Joe Sestak, Joe Torsella, Michael Lamb, Pat Toomey, Tom Ridge

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