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Internal poll from Knox camp shows tight Guv primary

Internal poll from Knox camp shows tight Guv primary

An internal poll commissioned by Democrat Tom Knox’s gubernatorial campaign shows the wealthy Philadelphia businessman in a dead-heat with Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato in next year’s primary.

The telephone survey of 800 Pennsylvania Democrats was conducted June 4-9 by Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin and Associates. Not surprisingly, more than half of Democratic voters polled were still undecided, with almost a year before primary day.

But in a head-to-head matchup with Onorato, considered by most party insiders to be the early front-runner, Knox garnered 21 percent of the vote, only slightly behind Onorato’s 22 percent.

When Lehigh County Executive Don Cunningham and Auditor General Jack Wagner were added to the mix, 14 percent of respondents backed Knox, and the same number supported Onorato. Wagner garnered 13 percent of the vote, and Cunningham 7 percent, with 52 percent undecided.

With Knox enjoying some leftover name recognition in the vote-rich Philadelphia region from his unsuccessful 2007 mayoral bid, the survey found him beating Onorato 42-6 in southeast Pennsylvania, where Onorato remains mostly unknown.

The poll had a margin of error of 3.5 percent. Only the poll memo was released, not the entire survey, leaving little information for independent analysis.

Click here to see the full poll memo.

June 15, 2009 at 2:09 pm

--Dan Hirschhorn

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  1. [...] Dan Hirshhorn at Pa2010 has this from inside the Tom Knox camp: [...]

  2. Anonymous

    Jun 15th, 2009

    Political campaigns 101. Only desperate candidates leak internal polling.

  3. Anonymous

    Jun 15th, 2009

    Read between the lines. There are nearly twice as many Democratic voters in Philly, so if Knox and Onorato are tied — it means that Onorato has locked up his base, while a large portion of Philly is up-for-grabs. Philly voters got to know Tom Knox in 2007 and they rejected him.

  4. Anonymous

    Jun 15th, 2009

    I heard that Tom Knox was involved in the payday loan industry. Does anyone know if that’s really true?

  5. GOPHAWK

    Jun 15th, 2009

    I wonder why they did not release the full poll. You would think that they tested Wagner – Knox and Cunningham – Knox. Maybe those numbers don’t look as good for Knox as the Onorato match up.

  6. OBAMAROX

    Jun 15th, 2009

    T0 anonymous — the “lock up” of the base is not a logical conclusion for this data. If all four guys are in the race, three are tied and one is trailing but still in the game. Most voters are understandably waiting to see how the campaign develops. I hope to support a progressive candidate and not the corporatist Democrats like Onorato. I would even prefer someone who made their own money like Knox rather than pay for play guys.

  7. Anonymous

    Jun 15th, 2009

    Doing a poll a year out. I guess that is how you spend $11 million and lose. Man, this guy’s campaign is taking him for a ride one more time.

  8. GOPHAWK

    Jun 15th, 2009

    Funny. Didn’t his campaign manager just lose badly in Philly on another race? He must pull this polling trick on all his clients.

  9. Anonymous

    Jun 15th, 2009

    I agree ObamaRox, I’m glad this poll was released, its about time someone else besides Onorato got all the media attention, and from what I can tell, Knox is the real deal, a self-made man. I respect him and his story.

  10. Anonymous

    Jun 15th, 2009

    Knox or Wagner would be fine with me, both are veterans, I respect a man who has served our country

  11. GOPHAWK

    Jun 16th, 2009

    Whenever reporters cite ‘party insiders’ they mean the Fast Eddie mob. Fast Eddie and his gang want to continue their reign of error and taxes and spending to help themselves at our expense. That’s why they want Onorato. He’s another pay to play career politician.

  12. Anonymous

    Jun 16th, 2009

    I agree with you GOPHAWK, thats why we need someone new in office, not a typical career politician who can be bought

  13. Reform Dem

    Jun 16th, 2009

    Tom Knox has been engaged in pay-to-play politics for years – paying tens of thousands of dollars to every politician under the sun to get a piece of the pie for his businesses. There is no way THAT guy makes pay-to-play an issue in this campaign.

  14. GOPHAWK

    Jun 16th, 2009

    Well, we just found out the price of pay to play for the next three years … a 17% hike in taxes on working people. Let’s see if any of these guys come out against Fast Eddie’s plan.

  15. WESTPADEM

    Jun 16th, 2009

    Im going for Onorato. He has the best chance, what is known in Southeastern PA is the fact that Tom Knox engaged in predatory lending. Onorato is our best chance for victory in 2010. Id like to see an Onorato Cunningham ticket. Knox is not known at all in the rest of the state, with exception of his predatory lending.

  16. GOPHAWK

    Jun 16th, 2009

    I’ll take predatory lending over predatory pay to play anytime. Fortunately, I don’t have to. Our GOP prosecutors are going to win. They will take down Ono-blago and his payoffs from the Port Authority;s tunnel to nowhere.

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