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Independents trend Republican in guv race, poll shows

If the eventual Republican nominee for governor can pull enough Democrats to his side that the race comes down the independent voters, the GOP has good reason to think it can win back the Governor’s Mansion after eight years.

The Quinnipiac poll released this morning showed both Republicans and Democrats heavily favoring their party’s nominee in a general election. Democrats outnnumber Republicans by 1.2 million voters in the state, double the edge they held five years ago. But Pennsylvanians are notorious ticket-splitters, and if a Republican with strong name recognition in the blue-trending southeast—like front-runner Tom Corbett—could win enough Democratic votes, independents would play a critical role.

And that would be good news for Republicans. The poll showed 32 percent of those voters picking a Republican candidate, compared to 23 percent who would back the Democrat. The sample of independents was small, which could make the overall trend more difficult to predict more than a year before the general election.

Another good sign for Corbett is that 31 percent of Democrats view Corbett favorably, by far the highest cross-party rating for any of the candidates polled.

Men also favored the Republican candidate 47 percent to 31 percent, but women favored the Democratic candidate 44 percent to 30 percent. Union households trended Democratic, 41 percent to 35 percent.

At least 80 percent of both Republicans and Democrats surveyed said they would vote for their party’s nominee.

•Also on pa2010.com: Corbett leads Republicans in new poll, Dems in tight race

July 21, 2009 at 9:42 am

--Dan Hirschhorn

Tags: Tom Corbett

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