Wow, he only got 35% overall. I thought Hoeffel would have done better. In fact, I expected this progressive activist poll to come out more like the Sestak versus Specter match-up which was basically 67 Sestak to 23 for Specter, if I remember correctly. The regional breaks have to be interesting if he got 57% in the Southeast and still plummeted to 35% overall.

Yes, I was surprised Auditor General Wagner performed as well as he did. People talk about him like he’s some sort of quasi-Republican, but if he does this well among progressives and can also appeal to the middle, he has a decent shot.

I’d like a progressive candidate, but I want someone who can win a statewide race. If anyone can show me that’s possible, (s)he’ll have my vote.

The big thing I’m concerned with is how can we utilize this unprecedented natural gas reserve we have. We need the right mix of pulling that out of the ground safely and cleanly while building up alternative energy production in the state.

Flynnbw, Wagner got 3.3 million votes last year, more than anybody else on either side. He is someone that progressives have already voted for. Remember, part of the activist base is unionized working people and Wagner has been a favorite of theirs in his two previous state wide wins.

Steelersfan, I agree with you about Hoeffel’s showing and was also surprised about Knox not being stronger after he spent 15 million dollars two years ago in the Philadelphia market.

The regional breaks were interesting with Hoeffel showing no strength outside of the SE and the Lehigh Valley. I think that is how he got crushed in his last statewide race. He just does not translate very well beyond the Phila. market and the GOP took advantage of it.

Doherty ran up the numbers in the NE but Wagner beat Onorato handily in the SW.

Guess Wagner is the SW candidate, after all.

Dan the Taxman taxed my beer, taxed my parking and taxed my food. Now he wants to put off taxing his rich friends in their fancy mansions. Glad to see that the progressives know better.

Poor showing for Doherty coming in forth, the Philadelphia Inquirer also mispelled his name yesterday. Doherty has a lot of work to do.

Spelling police “Scranton Guardian” misspells “fourth”…too funny.

Doherty is mayor of a city of 76,000 people, and he hasn’t declared he’s running yet, much less spent a dime in any market outside of NEPA. He’ll ultimately be a very strong candidate, guaranteed.

I know that Wagner endorsed Obama in the primary and I believe that Knox did as well. Wagner came out for him in a veterans’ event in the SW after the cling to guns and religion remark. So, I’m sure some progressives remember that.
I don’t know where Doherty or Hoeffel were on the Clinton and Obama race.
I do know that Rendell told Onorato to bow down to the corporate Clinton camp and, of course, he obeyed and knelt in featly to the corporate masters. Onorato is the kind of politician who is killing us in DC on reform and change. He is the opposite of reform.

Wow… this is very telling of who can WIN a general election in 2010 (not)

I wouldn’t read too much into poll, people…this is about as far from “scientific” as it gets.

Agreed demdem. I doubt he’ll win the primary nor do I think he could beat Corbett.

I’d go so far as to say I doubt he’ll still be in the race – if in fact he enters, in the first place – when PA Dems go to the polls for the primary.

Don’t see any of these candidates winning the guv seat. Rendell and the budget fiasco is killing dems statewide. I think Wagner has the best shot.

[...] Hoeffel wins straw poll… [...]

Hoeffel was in a good mood at the Specter event.

Since he is the liberal candidate, he’s got a built in base of support. Whether it’s enough, is a different question, but he’s certainly got a following.

Joe Hoeffel could easily beat Tom Corbett in 2010.

And the only reason Hoeffel got creamed in his last state wide race was because he was up against the Specter machine. A good number of Dems voted for Snarlin in 2004. You will not see Dems voting for Corbett in ‘10.

Montco Dem … they voted for Corbett last year when Obama was a rock star and Bush was a pariah. Our prosecutor will crush the Philly Fumo Rendell Hoeffel machine. We have had enough of the spending and taxing.

IMO, Wagner does have the best shot in the general election against Corbett. I also think there will be a building of votes for Gerlach in the Republican primary in May. Don’t be surprised is we see Gerlach building support and either falling short or winning a tight race. The Dem race will be interesting, especially if Hoeffel does get in. Wagner is out working all the time. Recently I’ve seen him making several appearances in central PA.

More important issue – does anybody have any inside news from the Specter event in Philly? Hopefully Pres. Obama fulfilled his committment to Specter and he stays away and lets Sestak beat Specter. If it is a Specter / Toomey general, it’s hello Sen Toomey.

Obama isn’t going to let Sestak beat Specter. Besides the embarrassment of having his endorsed candidate lose, Obama’s got access to enough info about Sestak to realize Sestak’s no good in general, and a weak candidate on the larger stage. A friend of mine saw the Sestak for the first time in that Toomey debate. Her reaction to Sestak was: “He’s creepy.”

Toomey is pretending to be moderate, but that won’t last long. Specter will take him apart like a cheap watch.
Specter will capture the middle, and the Left. Toomey will be stuck in a ditch on the Right.

Toomey could probably win as a State Senator, but not as a US Senator.

All the announced and possible Democratic candidates have regional power bases, but thus far none have built the statewide organization needed to win. Over the next eight months someone has to break from the pack and capitalize on their immediate advantages. Onorato appears to be the favored Democratic establishment candidate and has the biggest warchest. Wagner has run and been elected in statewide contests. Knox has deep pockets and has some interesting progressive policy ideas. Hoeffel has progressive netroots support and hails from the voter-rich southeast. Doherty – the Scranton Democrat – shocked us all with us statement of support for abortion-rights.

But as head into 2010, the Democratic gubernatorial primary will be overshadowed by the Specter-Sestak primary fight. That doesn’t bode well for Doherty, a latecomer to the race who lacks the name ID and organization. The same holds true for Wagner, who doesn’t elicit excitment from Democrats outside Western PA. I expect both to be primary causalties in early 2010.

Knox is a wildcard. If he likes his poll numbers heading into 2010, the self-funded Knox will soldier on. And as electric rate caps begin expiring in earlier 2010, some of his policy ideas may catch fire. But I think the real battle will come down between Hoeffel and Onorato. More on that later.

Wagner is the most qualified, honest, and capable politician in the field and pro-life to boot. Nobody will ever carry the Southeast again the way Fast Eddie did.

Just to clarify – I definitely believe that Jack Wagner is a “real Democrat” just as much as Joe Hoeffel – or Bobby Casey, for that matter. Wagner has always stuck up for the workers, and that means something to Democrats in PA.
Now he just needs to raise some money!