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New poll shows Specter and Sestak with narrow leads over Toomey
Both major Democratic candidates for Senate would narrowly defeat Republican Pat Toomey if next year’s general election were held today, according to a new poll.
The poll, commissioned by the Web site GrassrootsPA and conducted by Dane & Associates, found Congressman Joe Sestak (D-7) beating Toomey by five points, 43 percent to 38 percent, with 19 percent undecided. Senator Arlen Specter, meanwhile, would top Toomey 46 percent to 43 percent, with only 11 percent undecided.
The larger number of undecideds in the Sestak-Toomey matchup would seem to indicate a more open race if two relatively unknown candidates make it to next November’s election.
The survey of over 400 voters had a margin of error of 3.5 percent. But the relatively small sample size, combined with the lack of details released, make the results difficult to judge.
Click here to see the poll memo.
October 13, 2009 at 1:48 pm
Tags: Arlen Specter, Joe Sestak, Pat Toomey














Chris
Oct 13th, 2009
Thanks for covering our poll!
Jon Geeting
Oct 13th, 2009
Never heard of Dane & Associates. I want to see the crosstabs, especially after Nate Silver caught Strategic Vision straight up making up numbers.
David Diano
Oct 13th, 2009
Toomey vs either one of these guys is still pretty premature.
The Dems have a STRONG registration advantage over the GOP and we kicked out Rick Santorum last time around (and Toomey’s further to the Right and less popular).
The real poll question is Specter vs Sestak.
BTW, if Joe was out there praising and supporting Arlen, like the Dem leadership, Specter would have a bigger margin over Toomey.
By Sestak running a campaign that “Arlen can’t be trusted”, he risks damaging the Arlen and the party in November 2010.
Karen
Oct 14th, 2009
What’s the Arlen? Primarie’s are a good thing, it allow’s for the people to decide instead of party
bosses. I thought you were more principled than that.I know after thirty years your candidate switched parties because he was not willing to go down by the very people who kept him there so long.(real loyalty)
But I do adore him for his major contribution in our two
Supreme Court Justice’s. I would have voted for him again as a special thank-you. We have a new Hero now, and I look forward to reclaiming the seat for Pa. in a true old fashion way! Good Luck!
David Diano
Oct 14th, 2009
Karen-
The people that kept Arlen in for 30 years were the moderates and independents. The current GOP has become the intellectual wasteland of Rush, Glenn, Sean, Bill-O, and Sarah (and let’s not forget the crazy Michelle’s: Malkin and Bachmann). The Republicans are no longer a political party, but a grown up version of Lord of the Flies.
Most of the decent Republicans left the party, and the remaining ones foolishly think they can bail water from a ship made out of chicken wire.
Hundreds of thousands of PA Republicans abandoned the GOP last year, and they haven’t come back.
Why shouldn’t Arlen join his “peeps”?
DaveB
Oct 14th, 2009
“relatively small sample size, combined with the lack of details released, make the results difficult to judge.”
In other words, it’s worthless.
DaveB
Oct 14th, 2009
How about those Specter Re-Elect numbers: 31% in favor (all voters)!
If this is true, look for Specter to quit the race before the Primary
Kipp Lanham
Oct 14th, 2009
This poll has nowhere near an adequate sampling size to be a representative sample of Pa. voters. 400 leaves the margin for error high. The Susquehanna poll released on the same day is more representative.
Karen
Oct 14th, 2009
David,
I disagree on your interpretation of the Republican
Party. I’m not so sure who’s in the sinking ship? These people that you reference are intellectually
connecting to someone, or else I would not think
they would be of any relevance to mention.
politics aside…..
Karen
Oct 14th, 2009
David,
By the way, Pa. primaries are closed to independents.
David Diano
Oct 15th, 2009
Karen-
The connection to Rush, Glenn, Sean, Bill-O, and Sarah is not “intellectual”. Their brand of racism, bigotry and religious extremism have no intellectual basic to connect to.
They are fueled with misinformation, willful ignorance and outright lies.
The independents voted for Specter in general election, but they and many Dems SWITCHED registration in 2004 to help Specter in the primary to prevent a nut like Toomey from being the nominee.
DaveB-
Dems and incumbents are having a tough time overall. Wait until economy improves and Dem numbers go up.
servasre435
Oct 16th, 2009
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