Specter is a dead man walking (figuratively speaking). No incumbent has ever survived those kind of numbers. Never. Won’t happen now. Democrats have to hope that Sestak wins the primary. Obama will be stumping hard for Specter, which won’t help. Hillary waxed Obama among Democrat primary voters in PA. Sestak wins, hands down, and then falls to Toomey in what will be the strongest year for the GOP since the late 19th century.

Dream on, GOP. The senate race will be close, both primary and general. I do agree that Sestak, a fresh face to most voters, has a better chance of beating Toomey than damaged goods, hand-me-down Specter.

These early polls tell us little because few who are not political junkies have begun to pay much attention to the election yet — and probably won’t until after the start of the new year. The most revealing numbers, as stated in the article, are the falling “approval” ratings of the known incumbent. The big question for the Dems is whether Sestak can improve his campaigning skills because Specter is a demonstrated master of such.

Toomey is going to have to be very disciplined in pretending to be in the mainstream of American thought, instead of the extreme right wing ideologue (Bush-Cheney-Rumsfeld neo con) that he actually is. The drama will be whether he can consistently do so for another year plus. For such a “true believer” as Toomey, it will not be easy to stop himself, and his radical followers, from speaking out when certain issues become hot.

It will be part of the job of the Democratic nomineee to expose Toomey and to egg him into revealing himself as he actually is (at least as extreme as Rick Santorum who, of course was soundly sent packing by the voters in 2006).

Meanwhile, enjoy your reverie. Reality will be here soon.

20% looking for a outsider, maybe I should contact that Campaign Managment Group that called.. lol

PA2010 consistently tries to make this race more interesting than it is. Specter is leading Sestak 44-16 (nearly 3-1!). The polls still discount Bill Kortz and now Doris Ribner-Smith who, along with Sestak, will split the non-Specter voters. Specter will win the primary and people will realize that Toomey is ultraconservative (after Specter and 527s run ads displaying Toomey’s record in the House and as the head of Club for Growth) and that Specter, the moderate choice, is the best fit for Pennsylvania.

I’d like to see how Sestak fares among those voters who know enough about both Specter and Sestak to form an opinion. Sestak keeps narrowing the gap as people learn more about him, but there’s still a big name recognition issue. This is excellent news for Sestak. Democrats are nonplussed with Specter as the nominee, as this poll indicates, and they’re open to hearing Sestak make the case for himself. Specter has almost universal name recognition, so there’s nowhere for his numbers to go but down. There’s definitely a case to be made that Sestak is a considerably stronger general election candidate than Specter, especially for the anti-incumbent electoral environment emerging for 2010.

The re-elect question in this survey is worded very differently from the wording favored by most pollsters and is VERY leading:

Q5. Do you think Arlen Specter has done his job as United States Senator well enough to deserve reelection, or do you think it’s time to give a new person a chance?

And the vote questions follow, so they are colored by the leading re-elect questions.

Also, all of these public polls are of registered voters, and there are no screeners to make sure the primary questions are only asked of primary voters. They are all flawed.

And note that this poll allows 18% to be “none/other.” Assume for arguments sake that 3% of that is Kortz and Ribner-Smith. That leaves 15% not voting. So taking them out, Specter leads Sestak 51% to 19%.

Once the primary happens, the numbers in the general will move dramatically. Looking at the Specter-Toomey matchups now is meaningless.

Too all the Sestak fans: He’s polling under 20%. HELLO….
Sestak’s BEST polling numbers with Quinniapac against Specter have Joe at 21% – 25%, with little movement. Joe’s campaigning on a frozen lake, without ice-skates and near the “thin ice” sign.

Admittedly, the campaign is still at the early stages, but the more time Specter has to make DEM votes (health care, EFCA, etc.) the harder it will be for Sestak to make arguments against him not being with us. Specter has busted his a$$ for public option (and taken a brutal public beating for the Dems) while Sestak invited Toomey to spread disinformation (and got pantsed in the debate).

If we can bring Olympia Snowe over to our side, Specter will get ALL the credit as a trailblazer expanding the Democratic party.

Jon-
“I’d like to see how Sestak fares among those voters who know enough about both Specter and Sestak to form an opinion.”
Why???
It’s not going to be part of our universe. Voters WILL know more about Specter.
Actually, if voters in Joe’s district really got to hear about Joe’s record and Arlen wasn’t locked-out, Joe would be doing less well than he is locally.