Michael Livingston's Blog
Michael Livingston's Blog
Purple in Pennsylvania
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GOP rebounds in Pa.—or does it?
I posted yesterday on the Republican Party’s undeniable gains nationwide. Similar claims are being made for the state GOP: it’s bounced back and faces a brighter tomorrow.
Are they true?
On the surface, they would seem to be. Joan Orie Melvin’s election to the state Supreme Court has got to be satisfying for a party that has gotten used to losing at the statewide level. In my own Montgomery County, the party took six of seven judicial races despite a very aggressive Democratic campaign and a deficit in voter registrations. All this from the same GOP that lost the 2008 presidential race in Pennsylvania by more than 10 points.
The problem, of course, is that it isn’t the same electorate. The Republicans did well on Tuesday, partly because they campaigned hard, but largely because the great bulk of last year’s Democratic voters, especially in Philadelphia and other cities, didn’t participate. That’s a victory in itself—the Democrats were supposed to be using 2008 as a basis for future strength—but it doesn’t tell you a whole lot about what will happen when all those people come back. Local elections are also notoriously non-ideological; local judicial candidates seemed most concerned to let you know who was Jewish.
Speaking of ideology, the party’s success has been accompanied by a nasty struggle between conservatives and moderates, or conservatives and more conservatives, within party ranks. The state GOP is historically the most moderate of any really competitive big state Republican Party (NY and NJ haven’t been competitive, at least until Tuesday).
Will the departure of Arlen Specter prove an outlier, or will the bloodletting seen in upstate New York spread to our state?
What has happened, I think, is that the Pennsylvania Republicans have stemmed the bleeding and gotten their footing back. The next year will determine whether they can translate this into permanent gains or whether it is merely a speed bump in their decline. Hold on to your hats, it’s going to be a bumpy ride.
November 6, 2009 at 2:46 pm
Tags: Arlen Specter, Joan Orie Melvin, Republican Party
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David Diano
Nov 6th, 2009
Philly had 12% turnout. That is pathetic (though I think Phillies Fever and the SEPTA strike knocked it down more than expected).
While I agree, the 2008 wave didn’t carry over, local is not Federal or Governor.
This might also serve to shake the Dems out of complacency.
The GOP is still the party of NO and pushing out their moderates.
If the Dems can show real progress on reforms, the economy and JOBS, the GOP will have nothing to cluck about.
Jon Geeting
Nov 6th, 2009
The PA GOP may be moderate, but Republican voters are radicalized. Rohrer’s entrance into the race will force Corbett to shed his moderate image to burnish his wingnut credentials, lest his nomination get snatched away by the teabaggers.
Tom
Nov 6th, 2009
I posted this the day before yesterday and after reading David & Jon, I thought it appropriate to re post:
Tom
3 days ago
In my opinion: Moderate Republican – sits on the fence and waits for the wind to blow (Arlen Specter, Republican)
In my opinion: Moderate Democrat – migrates with the majority of their party, Fly right toward election season, fly left between elections. (Arlen Specter, Democrat)
Bottom line: Moderate does not take a stand on anything, lacks leadership, self preservation is their only goal.
Do you think an honest polititian, (if there is such a creature), would ever get elected?
flynnbw
Nov 6th, 2009
There are some truly principled moderates out there – or at least people who hold strong beliefs, some of which are more liberal and some more conservative.
Adam Schwartzbaum
Nov 7th, 2009
No, local isn’t national. The big story in those judicial elections isn’t the power or failure of the President and his agenda; its about the civic disconnect between Americans’ relationships with the federal government and with their local governments. The polling location of the University of Pennsylvania had over 3000 votes on Election Day in 2008. It had less than 200 last week.
Yes, Obama and the Democrats will need young people and minorities to come out strong in 2010. And they will if the President and Congress can deliver on their promises of change. The election will hinge largely on legislation – as good government should be. Hopefully the right outcomes on Capital Hill will move our country in the right direction AND assure our Democratic majority.
M1
Nov 13th, 2009
The reason that the vote shifted Republican, and will shift Republican in 2010, is because of the liberally derranged policies of Democrats both on a local level and beyond. Congress has over-stepped The Constitution. The American people do not want Big Government, Higher taxes,and the chains of out-of-control spending and control of every aspect of our lives. It is time for the Governor to call for a Constitional Convention and show our State sovernty.All incumbents will be voted out, for their lack of good stewardmanship. The time for special interests is over.It’s all about kitchen table issues.