send to a friend | print | comment

Inching toward guv race, Rohrer looks to test power of conservatives

A small congressional district in upstate New York was briefly a focal point of national politics this fall, when a conservative challenger made so much noise against a party-endorsed Republican that the GOP’s initially-favored candidate actually dropped out of the special election. The Democrats eventually captured the state’s 23rd District, but for a moment, the race served up the starkest illustration of conservatives’ attempts to build a political movement, with our without help from establishment Republicans.

It is into this electoral climate that state Representative Sam Rohrer (R-Berks) appears poised to dive headfirst. The longtime conservative lawmaker has been considering a run for governor, and conversations with Rohrer and people familiar with his thinking indicate that he is increasingly likely to do just that. He has formed a committee to raise money and has been gauging support from conservatives around the state. His chief political adviser says it will be “very difficult” for Rohrer to stay on the sidelines. And at least some grassroots conservatives seem more than ready to hear him out.

If he ultimately makes a run, Rohrer will face a candidate widely perceived as the party’s preferred nominee in state Attorney General Tom Corbett, and a higher-profile lawmaker in Congressman Jim Gerlach (R-6). But more than any specific political matchup, his candidacy would be a significant test of whether conservatives can build a successful, party-bucking campaign in an expensive, statewide race.

“It’s still a pretty big long-shot, but his message would be the type of message that, in a Republican primary, would hit home with a lot of people,” said Chris Borick, a Muhlenberg College pollster who has surveyed recent defectors from the state GOP’s voter rolls.

“I’m not sold yet on how it plays in a general election,” he added.

In a recent interview, Rohrer had nothing to say about Corbett or Gerlach specifically, but he said the climate was right for the type of candidacy he is likely to offer.

“To me, there is a clear and a strong desire on the part of rank-and-file Republicans to have a real conservative in the race,” Rohrer said.

Rohrer, who has represented Berks County’s 128th Legislative District for almost two decades, has a reputation in Harrisburg for being a staunch advocate for conservative fiscal policy and for working hard for tax policy reforms. While conservatives have yet to loudly voice any specific displeasure with either Corbett or Gerlach, neither is known as the conservative stalwart that Rohrer, to some, represents. As a longtime prosecutor, Corbett has little if any fiscal record to judge, while Gerlach had to craft a moderate image to hold a blue-trending House district.

“I think the reality is hitting now, that unless you’re a champion on the biggest issues that were highlighted in this last budget cycle, then going into this next fiscal iceberg is going to be very difficult,” said Jeff Coleman, a political consultant and former state House colleague of Rohrer’s who is advising him in his decision.

If he gets into the race, Rohrer will undoubtedly face formidable financial and organizational challenges, especially against Corbett, who has the backing of many party leaders and has run statewide twice before. But Coleman said Rohrer could test whether an emerging grassroots political model that has been successful at local levels can also be applied to more costly, statewide races. The closest such a challenge has come was Pat Toomey’s near-defeat of Arlen Specter in the 2004 Senate primary.

“Conservatives have moved from being a piece of the movement to being the backbone of the party,” Coleman said. “Sam Rohrer would be the first test of whether a New York 23rd model holds up.”

And while no one has yet to directly challenge either Corbett’s or Gerlach’s conservative credentials in this race, Coleman said that wasn’t the point.

“It’s more about passion and energy, and in Sam’s case, these have been his defining issues,” Coleman said. He’s been the conscience of the Caucus.”

Lowman Henry, a conservative leader in the state, said that even if Rohrer was unsuccessful, his candidacy would have value to the movement.

“I think that a conservative challenger in the primary would be helpful because it would cause the other candidates to have to address conservative issues,” said Henry, who heads The Lincoln Institute, a conservative think tank in Harrisburg. “And it would move the debate on economic issues, causing other candidates to move in that direction.”

State GOP chairman Rob Gleason said he welcomes any candidates in the primary, but that what happened in New York doesn’t hold many lessons for Pennsylvania.

“New York doesn’t have a very strong party,” he said. “That problem came up because of not having a strong state chairman, he let that get away from him. We don’t have that problem in Pennsylvania. When the time comes, I think the state committee will be able to prevail, endorse candidates for next year and deliver.”

In the end, even if Rohrer won a long-shot primary, it could spell a loss for Republicans, just like in New York.

“I’m not sold yet on how it plays in a general election,” Borick said. “In a localized race, it could be potent. Its potency in a big statewide race remains to be seen.”

But Rohrer doesn’t seem to want to walk away.

“I think it’s very difficult for Sam, as someone who’s really a true believer, to look at the field, compare it to his set of issues, and sit this one out,” Coleman said.

November 5, 2009 at 6:30 am

--Dan Hirschhorn

Tags: Jim Gerlach, Sam Rohrer, Tom Corbett

comments

comments [13] | post a comment