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Paige: Thinking Barletta can win is the ‘definition of insanity’

Shortly after he was joined in the 11th Distrct Republican primary by Lou Barletta Wednesday, Chris Paige called Barletta “unelectable” and said that giving him a third chance to unseat Congressman Paul Kanjorski (D-11) would yield a result no different than the first two.

“So, the real question is why would Republicans believe that Barletta can win this race?” Paige, a hedge-fund manager, wrote in an e-mail. “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again while expecting different results, and expecting Barletta to win after losing so many times before is just plain nuts. … Barletta—according to his own polls—had a 10 point lead that evaporated over the course of the last campaign.  Of course, turnout played absolutely no [role] whatsoever in that collapse. Granted, turnout may have pushed Cong. Kanjorski over the top, but the race was close enough for turnout to matter precisely because Barletta lost his 10 point lead.  That is, the more people in this district knew about him, the less they liked him, which indicates that he’ll continue to slide in the polls.

“There’s nothing that says a candidate who lost twice will do better the next time,” he added.

Paige has been hitting Barletta in public comments and on the blogosphere for weeks now as his new opponent inched toward the race.

Read his full e-mail below:

Please forgive the mass email, but – as I’m sure you can appreciate – I’m a bit rushed today.

Immediately following Mayor Lou Barletta’s announcement, Cong. Kanjorski’s Spokesperson Ed Mitchell released a statement in which he could barely suppress his glee that Republicans are even thinking about renominating Lou Barletta.  Let me quote his statement in its entirety:

“Hearing that Mr. Barletta is running for Congress again reminds me of what Yogi Berra said: This is like deja vu all over again.’ Having been rejected by the voters twice, I guess Barletta is looking for strike three and you’re out.

“The Congressman is busy reforming the financial industry, bringing jobs to the district and providing for affordable health care that protects Medicare. He also remains a champion for preserving Social Security, so we have no further comment at this time.”

So, the real question is why would Republicans believe that Barletta can win this race?  The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again while expecting different results, and expecting Barletta to win after losing so many times before is just plain nuts.

First, Barletta – according to his own polls – had a 10 point lead that evaporated over the course of the last campaign.  Of course, turnout played absolutely no roll whatsoever in that collapse.  Granted, turnout may have pushed Cong. Kanjorski over the top, but the race was close enough for turnout to matter precisely because Barletta lost his 10 point lead.  That is, the more people in this district knew about him, the less they liked him, which indicates that he’ll continue to slide in the polls.

Second, what’s changed since last year?  Everything that has changed has damaged Barletta’s chances, not improved them.  Let’s review:

1. The immigration issue has declined in importance, so much so that even Barletta didn’t think it was worth mentioning in his announcement video.  (Even Lou Dobbs is abandoning the issue.);

2. The Third Circuit’s decision in Lozano v City of Hazleton is closer than ever.  If Hazleton loses its appeal in its anti-immigrantion case – as virtually every independent legal analyst thinks it will – Hazleton will be bankrupt.  Think about the ad, “Barletta bankrupted Hazleton, and now he’s promising to do for America what he did for Hazleton.”

3. Barletta is asking Hazleton’s City Council to pass massive tax increases to cover his even more massive deficits caused by his profligate spending.  If City Council goes along, he’ll give the tax issue to Kanjorski.  If City Council doesn’t go along with his tax increases, Hazleton’s bankrupt.  What a choice!

4. PA’s DEP has stalled Barletta’s plans to transform Hazleton into a toxic waste dump.  (Even if the people of Hazleton don’t mind storing Philadelphia’s toxic waste, the people of Monroe County – the people who put Kanjorski over the top – won’t support a candidate with Barletta’s environmental record.)

There’s nothing that says a candidate who lost twice will do better the next time.  Granted, they may, but they don’t have to.  (Generally speaking, it’s candidates who have been rising in the polls throughout the campaign who go on to win next time; it’s not those who fell throughout the campaign who do better the next time out.)

Third, Barletta’s unelectable.  Barletta’s flirtations with and exploitations of racism are not acceptable to moderate Democrats and Independents – the people who control the outcome in this District.  His attempts to make Hazleton a place where Neo-Nazis and racists feel at home is not acceptable to the businesses we need to attract to revive our economy.  His blatant appeals to racist stereotypes are not consistent with tourism, the life’s blood of our economy.  [When's the last time you heard anyone plan a vacation for Hazleton?]  Do we want the Poconos to be associated with the Neo-Nazis and other racists Barletta attracted to Hazleton in support of his anti-immigrant policies?  In this economy, people are looking for any excuse to take their business elsewhere, so we just can’t afford Barletta’s racist ramblings against immigrants.  [Don't bother arguing it's not racist - the signs at "anti-immigrant" rallies say all you need to know.  For instance, one said, "The Majority will become a Minority."  Also, if this is about preventing terrorism, then why are we building a wall on the Mexican border when the terrorists have always used the Canadian border?  Shouldn't we close that border first?]

Fourth, Barletta’s that quintessential oxymoron: a big government conservative.  To stamp out “illegal immigration,” he was willing to give the government virtually unlimited power to monitor and track our every move.  In the name of “economic development,” he’s favored big spending, big deficits, and bigger taxes in Hazleton – a recipe he’s sure to repeat when he gets to Washington.  Frankly, the only difference between the Barletta Center he wants to build and the Kanjorski Center we already have is that the Barletta Center won’t be built by illegal aliens.  To help his friends on Wall Street, he supported plans to transfer the Social Security Trust Fund to Wall Street, the bailout before the bailout.  Barletta’s so loosely committed to conservative ideals that he was unable to decide whether he supported Barack Obama or John McCain in the 2008 presidential election!  That’s right: as recently as last year, he didn’t know whether he had more in common with Barack Obama or John McCain.  (Heck, I was a lifelong Democrat at that point, and even I knew to back McCain.  Indeed, my wife and I donated to McCain’s campaign precisely because we knew how bad Obama would be.)  Given his support for big government, big spending, and big banks, we know which one he’s more like, and it’s not John McCain.

This is a truly sad day for the Republican Party.  Once again, Barletta will drag our Party’s good name through the mud.  Even if he wins, every Republican candidate in this state will have to explain their support for him, or – like the Republican Presidential candidates did – they’ll have to shun him, which will mean that we’ll have no voice in Washington.  There is another way; there is another choice, and I’ll never stop fighting for our vision of the Republican Party: limited government, equal rights for all, and unlimited opportunity.

And, finally, a word on my chances.  As you know, Barletta is ignoring me, and he’s already “planning” for the general election.  From my perspective, that’s precisely how and why we’ll win.  By the time he realizes what he’s up against, it’ll be too late.  More to the point, I’m glad he’s focusing on the general election because there’s no question that I’m a better genereal election candidate.  Granted, I backed the Democrats before, and I was wrong, but my background makes me a great ambassador to the very voters we’re going to have to win over.  [If Barletta can't win my vote, he can't win any ex-Dems, which  means he'll lose again.]  To win, Kanjorski will have to go negative, and Barletta’s record is a negative campaigner’s dream.  Once voters realize that a vote for Barletta in the primary is a vote to re-elect Kanjorski in the general, I know they’ll come around.

In that spirit, I challenge Mayor Barletta to debate anytime, anywhere.  After all, if I’m not a threat, then there’s no reason he should duck me.  If, as I expect, he chickens out, then the voters in this District will know that I’m the only candidate with the courage to fight for them.

Thanks,

Chris

December 9, 2009 at 4:51 pm

--Dan Hirschhorn

Tags: Chris Paige, Lou Barletta, PA-11

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