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A snowy Lancaster rumor mill

LANCASTER—The Senate candidates tussled. The gubernatorial candidates laid down familiar talking points. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi came to party with her fellow Democrats. All of it happened as mounds of snow were piling up outside, leaving Democratic insiders who hadn’t booked a room at the Lancaster Host Resort here wondering if they could safely leave for the night and still make it back for Saturday’s important business.

Yes, it was a hectic evening at the Democratic State Committee, and behind the scenes there was serious politicking going on, with operatives counting votes for their candidates and gauging support in the hours before party committee members will gather to vote on endorsements in the three statewide races.

Through it all, pa2010.com managed to get a decent idea of what’s going on. Here’s our take, with the usual rumor-mill-caveat that this stuff isn’t necessarily confirmed. Enjoy.

Making the trip: There were some doubts that the necessary quorum would make the trip considering the snowstorm. But throughout the night, estimates of the number of committee members who had checked in gradually ticked up. First it was 130, then 160, then 180. By midnight, with the bar still full of revelers, there was a consensus circulating that well over 200 voting members or their proxies were on hand, and that an endorsement meeting could go forward.

Specter’s set: Even as Joe Sestak worked the room at various times, there seemed to be little doubt among party insiders that Arlen Specter is set to achieve the difficult two-thirds threshold needed to win the party’s endorsements. His outreach at the local level has, by all accounts, been extraordinary, as he has leveraged his longstanding relationships throughout the state into a level of party support that was hard to imagine last Spring. If he can win the endorsement Saturday, only nine months after switching parties, it will be an amazing political achievement.

The Doherty-Onorato chatter dies down: There was no shortage of speculation that Dan Onorato and Chris Doherty might come here having brokered some kind of a deal to run together on a gubernatorial ticket. But that doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Onorato, some say, was sufficiently spooked by the idea of going up against Bob Brady. And while there’s little doubt that Doherty would entertain a joint ticket with him on the bottom, the Scranton mayor is happy to stay in the race and raise his name recognition for another statewide campaign down the road. Unless there was a deal of monumental proportions being brokered deep into the night, Jonathan Saidel looked free and clear to win an endorsement that had seemed like his for months anyway. And one couldn’t help but notice Brady, who doesn’t always make it to these shin-digs, holding court in a foyer just above the bar for hours, deep into the night—perhaps just to make sure no funny business was going down.

Will Wagner win? The behind-the-scenes drama that is the race for governor was the most captivating of the night. And as morning approached, it was by far the most uncertain. Word swirled that the Onorato camp had thrown its weight behind the idea that the party should forgo an endorsement, in the clearest indication that it has no expectation of winning one. Meanwhile, coming off a string of endorsements from county party leaders, Jack Wagner was looking more and more like a man who might come out of Lancaster on top. Getting two-thirds will be a formidable challenge. But it seemed almost certain that he’d emerge as the top vote-getter. The hypothetical scenarios that would arise if he did win two-thirds, though, were dizzying. Usually the endorsed candidate takes control of the party infrastructure. But would Ed Rendell, who’s hardly buddies with Wagner, let him do so? Clearly hoping to take a major step forward, allies to Wagner could been seen working the room late into the night.

February 6, 2010 at 3:00 am

--pa2010.com Staff

Tags: Arlen Specter, Bob Brady, Chris Doherty, Dan Onorato, Jack Wagner, Joe Sestak, Jonathan Saidel, Lt. Gov.

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