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Automated poll shows Critz with slight lead in 12th District

Automated poll shows Critz with slight lead in 12th District

Democrat Mark Critz hold a four-point lead over Republican Tim Burns in the May special election to succeed John Murtha, but more than a quarter of voters are still undecided, according to a new poll.

The automated telephone survey, by the polling group We Ask America, found Critz garnering 38.8 percent of the vote, compared to 34.7 for Burns. About 26 percent of voters are undecided. Automated polls are generally far less reliable than live-interview polls, but the survey nonetheless provides the first public snapshot of the 12th District special election, just days after Republicans picked Burns as their candidate.

Both candidates hold wide leads in their respective parties, according to the poll, but independents are leaning toward Burns by a margin of about 39 percent to 20 percent.

The survey of 1,365 respondents, conducted Monday, has a margin of error of 2.6 percent.

March 17, 2010 at 7:22 pm

--pa2010.com Staff

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  1. STEELBLITZ1

    Mar 17th, 2010

    Critz leading by 3… VERY disturbing for his prospects is Burns 72-10 lead amongst independents at the out set. However, hard to gauge anything in 2 months.

  2. Frank

    Mar 17th, 2010

    Did I read the poll wrong? I believe it showed Burns leading Critz 72-10 amongst Republicans, which certainly wouldn’t be a shock. The Independents were going for Burns over Critz 39-20, which is a pretty poor showing but not as devastating as 72-10. If Critz was losing Independents 72-10 this race would be over. I don’t know if a Democrat could win in San Fran if they lose Independents by over 60%.

  3. STEELBLITZ1

    Mar 17th, 2010

    We Ask America found Democrat Mark Critz with a slight lead, 38.8 percent to Republican Tim Burns’s 34.7 percent. Another 26.4 percent are undecided. Among independents, Burns is doing extremely well, leading 72.9 percent to 10.3 percent. The sample size is a healthy 1,365

    This was from the web article.

    http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZDcxMTFiNDdkZDM3YTRiNWQ3ODdjMjg5NGMyM2UxMWM=

    Yeah, i think he screwed up too now that i look at it. Indies are 39-19

  4. David Diano

    Mar 17th, 2010

    That is one f*cking gerrymandered district.

    Frank-
    The district is 62% Dem, 29% Rep and 9% Ind/Oth.

    Critz could lose 100% of the Independents and it wouldn’t make a difference. The turnout percentage of independents in that district is very low. Less than 50% of them even bothered to vote in the 2008 Presidential election (compared to 66% for the Dems and Reps).

    Once again, you haven’t allowed your lack of knowledge get in the way of expressing a meaningless opinion. Bravo!

  5. Mark

    Mar 17th, 2010

    Actually automated polls have been shown to be more accurate especially when tracking. Bigger sample reflects a lower margin of error and voters answer more honestly because they don’t feel obliged to try and please the caller.

    We Ask America was involved in the Illinois governors race and had the most accurate results – within one half of one percent in final poll. Got every poll right and was only group to call the lt governors race.

  6. Jtown Dem

    Mar 18th, 2010

    I said Critz would be a train wreck. We shot ourselves in the foot with this guy. He should have a wide early lead.

  7. Frank

    Mar 18th, 2010

    David, you’re arrogant, smarmy little jerk aren’t you? I’m surprised you aren’t into Sestak. Seems like you two have a lot in common. If I ever saw you in real life I’d seriously punch you right in your face, not because of your views, but because of your elitist attitude. You’re the reason the rest of PA hates philly.

  8. Marylou

    Mar 21st, 2010

    The person who mentioned the percentages is right, the independent voters in the 12th really don’t have a lot of weight.

    Plus, many Republicans are with Critz because of the work he has done for small business (not selling them out like Burns), NRA, and with the more powerful ones like Pasquirella (who endorsed Critz.)

    Burns only has the same people Irey, Russell, Choby, etc. have had…not enough.

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