“It remains unclear exactly why it was withdrawn so quickly.”

Umm… actually it’s pretty clear. It was a p@ssy move by a weak candidate. He got called on it and didn’t want the bad PR on a challenge that was likely to fail.

Hoeffel had over 7,600 signatures. A significant safety margin above the 2,000 required.

Onorato is a corporate tool. His large consulting stable probably polled to find out where he should stand on this issue and that poll led to a flip-flop on his part. As I have tracked it, Onorato has so far flip-flopped on choice, on gay rights, on gun control, and on democratic elections. Next we will find out he flip-flopped on the drink tax.

“one of my supporters filed a legitimate challenge”

Wasn’t it five people? Which one of them filed the challenge with the court? Which one withdrew it? There are a ton of holes in this story. It doesn’t make any sense.

This is typical of Drink Tax Dan. He is a bully and like all bullies he runs away if you stand up to him and call him out. Now, if his big daddy Ed Rendell had backed him up, Dan might have gone ahead with the challenge. But, when he was on his own and challenged, he just blamed someone else and told a lie. This is what you can expect from Drink Tax Dan during the campaign and after.

Hey there political junkies,

Dan Hirschhorn here. I wanted to jump in and clarify something, which I’ve only come to fully understand myself in the last few minutes.

Without going into too many details, here’s what I can tell you:

The Onorato folks pushed this ballot challenge under the assumption that Hoeffel’s campaign would challenge Anthony Williams’ petitions (got all that?).

It makes sense. With only one candidate in the southeast, winning that critical bloc becomes harder for Onorato. With two candidates, Onorato’s flood of TV advertisements wins the day. Since Williams’ candidacy is particularly dooming to Hoeffel’s hopes, it stood to reason he would do his own ballot challenge. Frankly, I’ll have to ask the Hoeffel people at some point why they didn’t do that.

But when that didn’t happen, pursuing a ballot challenge against Hoeffel ran the risk of creating the very scenario that Onorato people hoped to avoid.

Anyway, I hope this clarifies things a bit. I’ll be the first to say that the statement Onorato put out this afternoon was a wee-bit confusing. So hopefully this answers the questions.

Thanks for reading!

Dan Hirschhorn

How exactly does the Williams campaign doom Joe Hoeffel? Exactly four people have heard of the man outside of his Senate District, and Joe has sweeping support (see article on recent polling) in SEPA. Every day Mr. Hirschhorn, you’re letting your Onorato support show more and more.

Piper – you’re misreading the poll Hoffel released – an internal poll of his, btw. Far from sweeping support and nothing really about the primary, which is what Dan was referring to.

Piper: Hoeffel needs as much of the SE Dem vote as possible to win the primary. With Anthony Williams on the ballot, identity politics will dictate a lot of Philadelphia, in particular African American votes, will default to Williams.

Obviously campaigning tries to address that, but Williams will be campaigning too.

Every vote Williams pulls, is most likely a default vote from from Hoeffel, not from Onorato.

So, the scenario with Williams in the race is: does Onorato cut a deal with Williams to keep him in or does Hoeffel cut a deal to get him out? Or does Williams ride it to the end and try to win statewide?

No polling is necessary for the analysis.

Reality— it was a poll commissioned from folks not with the campaign.

And thank you for explaining why another candidate in Phila could split the vote. My question is, why does anyone assume Tony Williams will be the one to do so. The man is only known in Phila because of his father, and he’s not that popular. And his heart doesn’t seem to be in running, since he’s still running for State Senate and is challenging his opponent to keep her out of the race. Until he shows that he’s actually become a threat to the race, I’m not convinced he’ll result in much of a threat, and certainly not a doomsday for Hoeffel. Not even close.

Piper — you’re wrong.
From the PA2010 blog:
“Democrat Joe Hoeffel’s campaign this week is highlighting an internal poll that shows him performing better than gubernatorial rival Dan Onorato in critical southeast Pennsylvania, as he seeks to leverage his name recognition from a previous statewide run into an argument about electability.”

Internal means HOEFFEL’S campaign did it.

So….you’re wrong.

Hey everyone,

I should clarify that the poll actually was not commissioned by the Hoeffel campaign. As the story about it later makes clear, it was commissioned by a group of pro-choice women.

I referred to it as “internal” because it was not an independent, public poll, and because it was conducted by the pollster for Hoeffel’s campaign.

But I’m realizing now that the early “internal” wording could obviously leave the wrong impression.

I’ll be appending a clarification.

Thanks. Let’s keep the conversation going.

Dan Hirschhorn

If Onorato, would not have played games with TJ Rooney at his back….in Lancaster, Hoffel’s people, sore losers, did not vote, and they pulled Williams to split the vote…Wagner would be the nominee…Thanks, to the slopy,job Of TJ Rooney,this mess is biting everyone in the A…. ! Go Jack, as you are leading in the poles, and have the county’s behind you….Hope the people show Rooney, and tell him where to go !

Dan-
Very interesting analysis of Dan’s motivations, but they are illogical.

The thinking among the Dems I talk to here in the SE is that Williams is a spoiler for Hoeffel, and doesn’t take votes away from anyone else. The first “rumor” is that Rendell put him up to it to help Onorato. The second “rumor” is that Williams is just being a douche bag to get some name recognition for the future and isn’t really serious. (The douche-ness of it, is that he’s just hurting a good liberal SE candidate unnecessarily.)

If Hoeffel thought Williams could be beaten by a petition challenge, he would have done it already. If Dan thought he was going to wipe away Hoeffel’s 7,600 signatures below threshold he was stupid, and even dumber to think he would get Hoeffel to go after Williams.

The only sensible reason for Dan to go after Hoeffel on a fruitless petition challenge would be to make Hoeffel waste time/money defending.

So, all this shows is that Dan’s (bought and paid for) campaign has money, but no brains or common sense.

Then why didn’t Hoffel’s people vote in Lancaster ? Take a good look at how TJ Rooney and what part he played in this. !!!!!!!!!!!!!! That’s the beginning of this and the bottom line !!!!!!!!!!!

David Diano –
Did you even look at the petitions for Williams or Hoeffel? You seem to have pretty strong opinions about whether they are any good or a challenge was sustainable against either of them.
Did you?

Reality: Did you? Because if you did, you probably work for the Onorato campaign.

No, but I’m also not the one opining about whether challenges would stand though.

Onorato says he shares Hoeffel’s base?! Think again Dan. You have little to no progressive support. You and Wagner are fighting over the conservative Dem base. Hoeffel’s in the clear with his own very broad, dedicated base of supporters.

Reality-
When the margin is that big (over 7,600 when only 2,000 is required), it’s a pretty safe bet that the challenge is going to be frivolous and fail. Also, Hoeffel has run statewide before, so it’s not like he’s a newbie that’s going to make that many rookie mistakes.

“Ladies Love Onorato” unless they care about protecting their reproductive rights or equal pay.

Diano- or getting hired by his administration. I think the Co. Exec only has like 15% of senior staff that are women.

There is a problem for Onorato, is that Hoeffel has a better campaign organization. Also, Wagner has not been able to raise substantial moneys, so Wagner may find himself trailing Hoeffel, with Onorato hammering him everyday. My bet is that Onorato will pull it out, even though he is an unlikable candidate. Money unfortunately makes it happen.

Brett-
Onorato isn’t pulling out. He’s got $10 million worth of reasons to stay in.

David,

You misread my posting, I said Hoeffel has a good street organization, but Onorato has more money and WILL pull it out. The loser here, unfortunately is Jack Wagner, who although a good guy, will not be able to overcome Onoratos fundraising and advertising.

Diano:

Onorato fighting for the conservative base?? Of the democratic part?????

That’s a good one. And I’ll be shopping for my next Xmas ham at Katz’s Kosher Deli.

Can I have some o’ whatever it is yo’re smoking?

Barry H-
Onorato is very conservative. He’s anti-abortion, anti-gay, anti-gun control, anti-women’s rights. He’s expecting to appeal to the conservative Dems in the non-SE part of the state. The guy’s a total DINO.
In the rest of the state, the conservatives Dems are the “base”. Look at Murtha, Holden, Carney, etc. All conservative, Blue Dogs in conservative districts.

Dan’s “plan” is to have Williams split the Philly+Suburbs vote with Hoeffel.

David

And what about Jack Wagner, opinion?

If these candidates had ANY decency, and we all know that they don’t, they would leave the race immediately. Enough already, Pa. taxpayers deserve far better.

Brett-
I think Jack’s a decent guy. A bit conservative for my tastes, but he appears to be an honest politician, who understands the budget. I think Hoeffel is better on the issues, but I could live with Wagner as the Dem candidate.

If Wagner or Hoeffel had a few million, Onorato would be toast. They’ve got an uphill climb because of the money disparity.

Professor Diano, you are correct again. I learn everyday from the master, I am grasshopper.

How to stop Onorato. That is the question.

If Wagner dropped out, most of his votes would go to Onorato, especially in the west. But if Hoeffel dropped out, most of his votes would go to Wagner.

Can Wagner cut a deal with Hoeffel? What does he have to offer that would get Hoeffel to step aside?

It is clear that most of the people posting here have NO understanding of Willimas candidicy.

Allow me to share some enlightenment & share a few reasons for his campaign:

First of all, he is a puppet for no one (2) He wants to change the converstation from the constant pandering to the West when most of the votes are in the Southeast (3) His passion for economic opportunity for all and school choice and (4) county level control over gun laws. These are some of the reasons he has entered the race.

He will also demonstrate that a party outsider (which he is in this race) who is also African American CAN raise as much or more money than the party favorites and run a credible statewide campaign. This fashions his campaign in the greatest tradition of his legendary father who did the same thing in a long-shot campaign for Mayor but it changed Philadelphia politics forever and his campaign manger W. Wilson Goode would later become Philadelphia’s first black mayor. Goode, except for the MOVE tragedy, was a very decent Mayor regardless of color and has been an extremely honorable ex-Mayor and consummate public servant.

Williams is a great man with the ability to do great things.

Hope this helps…