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Specter leads Toomey by 6 in new poll

Specter leads Toomey by 6 in new poll

UPDATE APPENDED (See bottom)

For the second time in 10 days, Arlen Specter can say he’s winning.

Specter holds a six-point lead over Republican Pat Toomey, 47 percent to 41 percent, according to a new Research 2000 poll. The survey, conducted for the liberal Web site Daily Kos, found only 11 percent of voters undecided in the general election matchup between Specter and Toomey.

Although the vast majority of polling from the last several months has shown Specter either trailing or tied in the race, the latest survey followed a recent Quinnipiac poll that gave Specter a seven point lead. The poll of 600 likely voters, which had a margin of error of four percent, showed Specter with somewhat better approval ratings than he’s had of late. Forty-eight percent of voters view him either favorably or very favorably, while 42 percent view unfavorably or very unfavorably.

Specter also leads primary opponent Joe Sestak 51 percent to 32 percent, with 17 percent of voters still undecided, according to the poll. And in a November matchup with Toomey, Sestak trails by only three points, 42 percent to 39 percent, with 19 percent of voters undecided.

Click here to see the poll.

UPDATE: In June 2010, Daily Kos disavowed all polling data provided by Research 2000, alleging fraud. As of July 2010, Research 2000 had denied wrongdoing but taken down its Web site.

March 12, 2010 at 6:36 pm

--pa2010.com Staff

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  1. Frank

    Mar 12th, 2010

    If the DailyKos says Specter is up by 6, that means he’s probably down 10 at least.

  2. David Diano

    Mar 12th, 2010

    Frank-
    The Daily Kos paid for the poll, bur Research 2000 conducted it.
    This poll is consistent with Quinniapac. So, there’s less reason to doubt it.

    Rasmussen has been skewed towards Sestak and Toomey. We need to see if even that skewed poll shows movement innthis same direction.

    Anyway, this is more good news for Specter and the capper for a bad week for Sestak.

  3. John

    Mar 12th, 2010

    Yeah, when the Daily Kos shows Specter ahead, the poll is legit and it’s more great news for Uncle Arlen. When Rasmussen shows him down, it’s just a GOP poll that can’t be trusted and shouldn’t even be looked at. David, you’re delusional. A year from now Toomey will be in the Senate and Arlen will be in the retirement home eating soft foods and getting his diaper changed by a nurse. You probably also think Joe Hoeffel will be our next governor. I’m sure he’s up over Corbett in the latest Daily Kos poll too.

  4. HateSestak

    Mar 12th, 2010

    Representative Sestak does not even command support within his own district (as so aptly demonstrated by his inability to secure the nomination of Montco Dems). Sestak’s Senate bid is a farce – a political debacle without precedent. Aside from a sinful Congressman who fondles the genitals of innocent young males, no one of consequence is voicing support for him. Sestak’s Political Director, Communications Director and others abandoned this campaign for a reason: because it is a sinking ship.

  5. David Diano

    Mar 13th, 2010

    John-
    I would trust a poll conducted ON Daily Kos. I was just pointing out that the Daily Kos poll is consistent with the Quinniapac poll.
    Actually, if you really suspect the Daily Kos of bias, wouldn’t you expect their poll to have good numbers for Sestak (who has fooled many of their readers into believing he’s a liberal)?

    Also, Quinniapac has Specter +7 and Daily Kos has it only +6.

    Seems to me that if it was biased the way you claim, that Sestak would be closer to Specter, and both would be further ahead of Toomey than Quinniapac.

    The poll isn’t an outlier poll, so there’s no basis to reject it as illegitimate. Rasmussen has consistently been an outlier pollster.

    Either way, this poll is bad news for Sestak as it is one more example of him having no traction with less than 10 weeks to go.

  6. BB

    Mar 13th, 2010

    Once again, Pa. taxpayers/voters are left with three horrible choices in this race. I guess it comes down to who is the least of three evils. I find it funny on the issue of tolling I-80 Specter now says “it’s an issue for the state to decide.” That’s funny because it’s up to the Feds to decide if tolls can be placed on the interstate or not. Clearly he does not want to upset the folks in the northern part of the state, while at the same time does not want to upset the folks in SE Pa. including all the SEPTA officials. Sestak fails to vote on important issues, basic premise of his job, and Toomey is so far out of it as a right-wing zealot, we clearly are the losers having to decide between these three. We need a fresh face, someone not afraid to lead, someone who can CHANGE THE CULTURE. It is truly sad.

  7. EK

    Mar 13th, 2010

    Here’s the problem:
    DEMOCRATS 280 47%
    REPUBLICANS 235 39%
    INDEPENDENTS/OTHER 85 14%

    While the poll should include more Dems than Repubs, it should also include at least as many Independents as Dems. It also has a major racial demo breakdown in that only 4% of respondents are not either caucasian or african american… I think anyone could tell you that we have more asians and latinos than 4% in PA. On top of that, it’s got almost as many people from Pittsburgh as it does from Philly and the burbs which significantly skews the figures.

    This is a poor poll and can’t be relied on… sorry Specter, Onorato, and Corbett.

  8. David Diano

    Mar 14th, 2010

    EK-
    The registration breakdown of PA is:
    Dem: 51.14%
    Rep: 36.92%
    IND: 10.87%
    and about 1% “other”

    Showing as many independents as Dems would be idiotic. As it is, the Republicans are over-represented in the poll, relative to voter registration.

    Philly has 1.05 million registered voters. Including the surrounding counties you have 3.2 million voters in SE PA.

    Allegheny county has 901,000 registered voters.

    From Wikipedia:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pennsylvania
    The racial demographics of PA as of 2005:
    White: 86.83%
    Black: 11.20%
    —————
    sum: 98.03 (that leaves 1.97% “other”)

    So, the only thing that appears to be “skewed” is your logic.

    EK, are you naturally ignorant, or do you just go out of your way to make up wrong stuff?

  9. Stuffed Ballot Box

    Mar 14th, 2010

    Snarlin Arlen cant win he is a Turn Coat Twice and will do it again when the Democrat Party Needs him

  10. Ed H.

    Mar 14th, 2010

    Looks like I got this prediction right. People are starting to see past the wool that’s been pulled over their eyes by the press and the Tea people dopes and see that Toomey is an empty suit.

  11. EK

    Mar 16th, 2010

    Diano: I don’t believe I’ve ever been disrespectful to you, and I’d expect the same level of maturity in return.

    The figures I’d seen in the past (and been told personally by the Governor) suggest that independents held the registration edge prior to 2008. It would seem that at present, that is wholly incorrect. I own up to my mistakes. However, the racial data is the stupid census decision to count latinos as caucasian rather than treating them separately. The ’08 ACS has White: 83.8% ; Black or African American: 10.3% ; Asian: 2.4%

    Again, the census doesn’t account for latinos whatsoever and therefore those figures for race can’t be relied upon. As for the Pittsburgh situation, perhaps I should have said, “almost as much as Philly and the burbs *combined*.”

    Oh, and your registration statistics are off, independents are half what you claim with other making up about as many. They combine for about 11.5%.

    So I admit, I made a mistake with the partisan affiliation portion. The rest, however, was spot on and straight off the top of my head at the time.

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