It will be shocking if Onorato wins this race.

Not so, Corbett has no belief in the first amendment or constructive critism, once Onorato starts running commercials, poll will tighten to 5 point spread either way.

Commercials will be the key….Pittsburgh is the shining start of employment in the US and Corbet is still suing the US Govt to keep Health Care reform away from us….this is a no-brainer…the light of day will make this easy.

I agree Kevin. Corbett will def win.

I don’t understand how Corbett is doing as well as he is in the early polling since he is such a collossal tool, but we are still five months out and this had better tighten up as the voters become more educated or I will lose all faith in the intelligence of human beings. The man has abused his office for political gain and is tied to the Weird Orie Sisters nest of corruption, Onorato camp and the Dems need to hammer that hard because we don’t need an unethical prig in the guv’s mansion.

Name recognition and Rasmussen house effect is my guess. Rasmussen has a long and documented history of political hackery.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/05/blast-from-rasmussen-past.html

It has also done a bad job explaining it:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/use-of-likely-voter-model-does-not.html

“Rasmussen does not appear to do any of these things. Their polls are in the field for only one night, leaving little or no time for callbacks. They do not call cellphones. They do not appear to use within-household selection procedures. In addition, their polls use an automated script rather than a live interviewer, which tends to be associated with a lower response rate and which might exacerbate these problems. So Rasmussen’s raw data is likely dirtier than most.

But pollsters then have a second line of defense: they can massage their data by weighting it to known demographics, such as age, race, gender, or geographic location. This can work pretty well, but it is not foolproof; it requires some finesse. Moreover, some differences in response rates may not intersect neatly with these broad demographic categories. Pew has found, for instance, that those people who rely primarily or exclusively on cellphones tend to be somewhat more liberal, even after other demographic considerations are accounted for.

The bottom line is this: the sample included in Rasmussen’s polling is increasingly out of balance with that observed by almost all other pollsters. This appears to create a substantial house effect, irrespective of whether Rasmussen subsequently applies a likely voter screen.”

In other words, Rasmussen does everything it can to generate partisan polls. My guess is that Onorato is down 8 after you control for Rasmussen’s house effect. Not great, but not 16 either.

When Asher becomes the issue, the race will tighten considerably. Can’t be the law and order man and have a guy who went to prison for political corruption chairing your campaign and avoid being hurt by it. Maybe not enough to lose, but with a million voter registration advantage…

Onorato’s western base coupled with the likelihood of the Eastern Pa./Philly TV market and Corbett and Toomey being job killers is going to make this race an upset.

Sorry… that should read “Eastern Pa/Philly TV market going for him (Onorato)”

Plus, with Northeast Philly the last bastion for Republicans in the City, Corbett may not do well in an area he’ll desperately need to have not just a win, but turnout.

CORBETT HAVE YOU NO SHAME R BUD DWYER HAD TO BLOW HIS BRAINS OUT OVER WHAT ASHER DID SO THAT DWYERS WIFE COULD GET HIS PENSION YOU CORBETT RUN AROUN D THE STATE SUPPOSED SAVING US FROM CROOKED POLITICIANS YET THE MOST PROVEN CORRUPT ONE OF ALL IS RUNNING YOUR CAMPAIGN ARE YOU GONNA SUBPOENA ME NOW MEATHEAD ASHER LOVER

I get the feeling that Ed H has a very strong opinion about this race.

[...] 1)     pa2010.com: Poll: Corbett up 16 in guv race [...]

Corbett will win by 10 (55-45). He’ll perform well across the state, doing better in the west as opposed to the east (although he’ll squeak by in the Philly “collars” – any successful statewide Republican almost has to). I’d venture to say he may actually win Allegheny County, as Onorato isn’t particularly liked county-wide (once you get out of the city of Pittsburgh – even there it’s not a slam-dunk for Dan these days). If memory serves, Rendell won his first term by about 10 points in 2002. Corbett will get there using a different calculation, but the end result will be the same.

Mike,

Are you serious? Do you have any clue about the demographics of this state? I would be in for a G note if you are giving 10 points. Heck I would be in for a C note even odds. Let me know.

I will give it a D Note too, for Dumb calculations, Corbett has a bad bad temper and it will come out this summer.