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GOP memo claims 7-point edge for Fitzpatrick

GOP memo claims 7-point edge for Fitzpatrick

A GOP-commissioned survey has found Republican Mike Fitzpatrick enjoying a seven-point lead ahead of his rematch against Congressman Patrick Murphy (D-8), according to a new poll memo.

The poll memo, released Thursday by the Fitzpatrick campaign, describes a survey conducted by the GOP firm Public Opinion Strategies on behalf of the challenger’s campaign and the National Republican Congressional Committee. The memo says Fitzpatrick is “well-positioned to retake” to Bucks County seat he lost to Murphy after one term in 2006.

In a survey of 400 likely voters conducted Aug. 22-23 with a margin of error of 4.9 percent, the poll memo says, Fitzpatrick garnered 48 percent of the vote, compared to 41 percent. That means just over 10 percent of respondents said they were still undecided, an unusually low number more than two months before Election Day.

The full survey questions and crosstabs were not released, making it impossible to independently assess the merits of the poll itself. Murphy holds a significant advantage in campaign cash that will allow him to blitz the airwaves in the weeks before Election Day.

The poll memo claims that Fitzpatrick is holding an important edge with independent voters, 59 percent of whom view him favorably, compared to 48 percent of whom view Murphy favorably. Both President Obama and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi are suffering from low job approval ratings in the district, according to the poll memo.

“Patrick Murphy’s electoral victories in this district came during the two best election years for Democrats in decades,” pollster Neil Newhouse wrote. “Now that the political winds have shifted, Murphy is seeing this recently-friendly district slip away. Voters have soured on President Obama and Speaker Pelosi and they’re looking for a Republican to provide a check and balance in Congress.”

August 26, 2010 at 10:00 am

--Dan Hirschhorn

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comments [11] | post a comment

  1. Lil

    Aug 27th, 2010

    People need to vote. This is such an important election year, I hope the momemtum continues for Mike. We need him back in Washington….time for Nancy Pelosi to go along with her “lap dog” Pat Murphy. Keep your focus on the prize. It’s time for Mike Fitzpatrick on November 2nd.

  2. Robert B. Sklaroff, M.D.

    Aug 27th, 2010

    The results of this poll are corroborated by points made elsewhere on Pa2010 regarding the national phenomenon of “endangered Democrats trying to run away from the Democrat-POTUS.”

    http://www.phillyburbs.com/news/local/courier_times/courier_times_news_details/article/28/2010/august/26/murphy-jobs-program-absurd.html?utm_source=PA2010.com+First+Read+Opt-In+List&utm_campaign=0b9792bcba-The+First+Read+8%2F27&utm_medium=email

    Although it is not unexpected that Pat will attempt to launch a media-blitz (heavily financed by the incumbency enjoyed by the D-majority in Congress and within his personal coffers), it is hoped that people will choose to become “armed with the facts”…and to function accordingly.

  3. ConservativeWrites

    Aug 28th, 2010

    It is a very important time for the country and we are lucky enough to be in a place that has a chance to make a difference. Let’s make sure the Fitz effort is a wave that builds steadily through 11/1 and then breaks like thunder on Election Day. (The Carlineo endorsement should be mid-late October).

  4. B B

    Aug 29th, 2010

    Before we get too excited in sending Fitzpatrick back to Washington it would be wise for all the voters in the 8th District to compare what Fitzpatrick did for Bucks County compared to what Murphy has done for the voters.

  5. Transplant

    Aug 30th, 2010

    Convservative–

    Yes the coveted Carlineo endorsement. Does anyone know who she is?

  6. ConservativeWrites

    Aug 30th, 2010

    BB- All anyone who’s been paying attention asks of Murph’s replacement is that he vote against Nancy Pelosi. The bar is very, very low. Moreover, a great many of us going to the polls this year have seen all we need to see about what government can “do” for us. We’ll take it from here, thanks.

    Transplant – Yes. There is a relatively small (but important) group of misguided conservative ideologues who think it is better to keep Murph in there and go for ideological purity in two years. The Carlineo endorsement will matter to these fools.

  7. RTY

    Aug 31st, 2010

    Yes, we “conservative ideologues” don’t like a flip-flopping career politician who is just another gear in the shamelessly corrupt Bucks GOP. Imagine that. We don’t like someone who votes one way while in office, gets voted out of office (by a nobody at the time), and then takes a 180 degree turn on a multitude of conservative issues (earmarks, Cap and Trade, Card Check, sanctuary cities, etc.) after getting booted out of office.

    I am not voting for the lesser of two evils – and the Bucks GOP does not like to hear that. I’ve got better things to do than help this pathetic candidate and local party.

    Unless I start reading that PA-08 is the race which is going to determine whether the GOP regains the House (which is highly unlikely because the GOP has many inspiring conservative candidates outside of PA-08 and will probably retake the House with a couple dozen seats to spare), I am not going to vote for anyone in PA-08 when I get to the voting booth … regardless of whether Carlineo endorses FitzFlop or not.

  8. Robert B. Sklaroff, M.D.

    Sep 1st, 2010

    RTY, inasmuch as it is impossible to rely upon pre-election polling for definitive outcomes data, you have created an impossible impediment to doing what should be done locally to oppose all-things-Obama; a rationalization to depend upon the handicapping of any/all electoral punditry is a facade for passive-aggressive conduct.

    If you have no problem with the distinction-with-a-difference that Mike offers over Pat ["a multitude of conservative issues (earmarks, Cap and Trade, Card Check, sanctuary cities, etc.)"], then “get with the program” and function accordingly.

    If you don’t, you will be subject to the charge that you would prefer a GOP-candidate you don’t like would LOSE so that a GOP-candidate you do like could run in 2012.

  9. ConservativeWrites

    Sep 1st, 2010

    Exactly, Doc. Anyone paying attention to what has taken place since Nancy Pelosi took the Speaker’s gavel and how much worse it has gotten since Obama took office knows how important this election is.

    Make no mistake; this is an election for Speaker of the House. A vote for anyone but Fitz is a vote for Nancy Pelosi.

  10. FitzFlops is an Outrage for Trying to Knock

    Sep 4th, 2010

    Tom Lingenfelter off of the Ballot everyone who wants to run for office should be allowed to run

  11. rob Burroughs

    Sep 9th, 2010

    It is better to have Mike than Pat and he has apologized – I hope that he has learned a lesson and is back on track. Mike if you would like me to help I will. I can put a good number of events together for you. I believe that you have repented for your infractions on Bucks. And I am hoping for you to win.

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